Bitcoin Price Forecast This Week: BTC Eyes Sharp Move After NFP Report

Bitcoin Price Today: Where BTC Stands Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $81,000 on Friday, up more than 4% for the week. The Bitcoin price forecast now hinges on one major event: fresh US jobs data that could reshape the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and decide BTC's next directional move.

Strong institutional demand is backing the rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are set to close a third straight week of net inflows, a sign that big investors keep buying the dip and support the current Bitcoin price prediction for further upside.

US NFP Report: The Key Catalyst for Bitcoin This Week US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jumped by 162,000 in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is a sharp acceleration from July's weak 21,000 reading and well above forecasts of 56,000, pointing to a stronger labor market than traders expected.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he favors holding interest rates steady at the September 15–16 Fed meeting, as long as inflation data stays in line. His comments pulled US Treasury yields and the US Dollar lower, which lifted Bitcoin more than 5% on Thursday.

A stronger NFP report could raise the odds of a Fed rate hike, pushing yields and the Dollar higher and pressuring Bitcoin price. A weaker report could do the opposite, cutting rate-hike odds and giving BTC room to rally further.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risk Alive Rising energy prices tied to the US-Iran conflict near the Strait of Hormuz keep inflation risk in play, a factor the Fed is watching closely. Iran struck US military bases in Kuwait and the UAE on Thursday, and South Korea is reportedly preparing naval assets for the region before year-end.

Higher Oil prices from this conflict tend to support the US Dollar and add a risk-off tone, which can cap gains in Bitcoin and other risk assets in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Show Strong Institutional Demand Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track for a third consecutive week of inflows, totaling $812.26 million through Thursday. This steady institutional buying is one of the clearest bullish signals in the current Bitcoin price forecast.

Bar chart of Bitcoin ETF net inflows over three weeks reaching $812.26 million Bitcoin spot ETF weekly net inflows. Source: SoSoValue Strategy Resumes Bitcoin Buying Michael Saylor announced Monday that Strategy bought 4,603 BTC for $370 million, lifting the firm's total Bitcoin holdings to 845,050 BTC. The company also added $29 million in cash and bought back $152 million of its Stretch (STRC) stock, bringing total reserves to $6.71 billion and Net Leverage to 0.0%.

Strategy's STRC shares still trade near $97, below the firm's $100 target, even after repeated buybacks. The company holds roughly 39 months of dividend coverage, giving it room to keep supporting the stock without new debt in the near term.

Gauge chart showing Strategy has 39 months of dividend coverage from its USD cash cushion Strategy's dividend coverage cushion. Source: K33 Research Bitcoin Seasonality: What History Says About September Bitcoin closed August with close to 25% gains, its best month since November 2024 and a second straight month of gains. Seasonal data, however, shows September has historically been a weak month for BTC, with average losses near 2.65%. Add in Fed rate uncertainty and Middle East tensions, and September brings real risk to the current Bitcoin price prediction.

Bar chart comparing Bitcoin's 25 percent August gain to its average 2.65 percent September loss Bitcoin monthly returns: August gain vs. average September performance. Source: Coinglass Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Next Trends Trading Levels to Watch BTC trades at $80,799 at the time of writing, just above the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $80,382. A weekly close above this level could open the door to $87,599 (the 50% retracement of the August 2024 low to the October 2025 high), then the 100-week SMA at $89,175.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 59, above the neutral 50 mark, showing solid upward momentum. The MACD has held a bullish crossover since mid-July, backing the positive Bitcoin technical analysis outlook. A failed breakout could send BTC back toward the psychological $70,000 level.

Chart showing Bitcoin weekly RSI at 59, daily RSI at 72 in overbought territory, and a bullish MACD crossover Bitcoin RSI and MACD momentum overview — Next Trends Trading Level type Price Resistance $85,000 50-week SMA $80,382 50% retracement $87,599 100-week SMA $89,175 200-day EMA (support) $72,541 50-day EMA (support) $71,135 100-day EMA (support) $69,701 Psychological support $70,000 On the daily chart, BTC holds above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, clustered between $69,700 and $72,500, keeping the near-term bias bullish. The daily RSI at 72 sits in overbought territory, hinting the rally may need to pause, though the MACD histogram stays positive.

Resistance sits near $85,000. On a deeper pullback, support layers stack at the 200-day EMA ($72,541), the 50-day EMA ($71,135), the 100-day EMA ($69,701), and further down near $66,500 and $62,300, where dip buyers would likely step back in.

Bitcoin Price FAQ What is the Bitcoin price today? Bitcoin trades around $81,000, up more than 4% this week.

Why are Bitcoin ETF inflows important? Bitcoin ETF inflows show how much money institutions are putting into BTC. Three straight weeks of inflows, including $812.26 million recently, signal strong demand and support the Bitcoin price forecast.

What could move Bitcoin price this week? The US NFP report and the Fed's interest rate decision are the main catalysts. A weak jobs report could push Bitcoin higher, while a strong one could add short-term pressure.

What is the key resistance and support for BTC? Key resistance sits near $85,000. Key support levels sit at $72,541, $71,135, $69,701, and the psychological $70,000 mark.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing in Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency.